Boots on the ground

The White House is releasing some cryptic videos that suggest troops are about to arrive in Iran. Maybe they think that America is going to charge into Iran and start kicking ass, but I’m worried that a Black Hawk Down or Lone Survivor situation will end up happening. God forbid US soldiers get captured - Trump will be digging himself into a worse negotiating position with each passing month.

Iran is putting in place a framework where they control the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and collect a toll. I think this will become the new normal going forward.

Philippines is now in a state of national emergency due to a severe shortage of fuel. The fuels lines reminiscent of the 1970s have arrived:

The Russia/Ukraine war is also affecting global oil supply, with over 40% of Russian export capacity halted.

In the paid subscriber section: Current positions and some interesting links