Oil is not the whole story
On Friday, 30 minutes after the futures close, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that they are “getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East.” The SPY ETF surged in after-hours trading on this news, and I would have been stopped out of my short ES and long oil had the post come out 30 minutes earlier when the market was open.
Thanks to Trump’s timing, I dodged a bullet as it became clear over the weekend that the US is nowhere close to winding down in Iran. Trump proceeded to threaten Iran’s power grid, which was followed by threats by Iran to target critical infrastructure throughout the Middle East:
Iran also made it clear that the financial markets are one vector where they plan to inflict pain on the US:
The US is also sending thousand of Marines to Iran - most likely a move to occupy and secure the Strait of Hormuz, a feat that will take months to achieve, if success can be achieved at all.
In the paid subscriber section: Why I’m taking profits (for now), why the price of oil is just the tip of the iceberg for inflation, my favorite global macro trade, the long term buy zone in gold, my long term views on the US equity market, some additional study material, and some AI prompts that explain why Iran will keep this conflict going much longer than you think.
