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The war in Iran continues to be the singular focus for the markets, while economic data, monetary policy, and AI have taken a back seat for now. US energy secretary Chris Wright posted “U.S. NAVY SUCCESSFULLY ESCORTED AN OIL TANKER THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TO ENSURE OIL REMAINS FLOWING TO GLOBAL MARKETS”, sending Brent down to $81. He then deleted the tweet and oil rebounded back up to $91. Not sure what happened there - maybe the ship had to turn back?
The presence of Iranian mine-laying boats in the Strait of Hormuz suggest that Iran intends to keep the SoH closed for an extended duration, challenging the views that this supply shock will be over sooner than later. I wanted to go long oil this morning, but the $10-15 intraday swings make it untradable. This was the chart I woke up to:
