Thoughts on Jackson Hole, crypto, and what I'm actually bullish on

Markets reacted to Powell’s dovish pivot at Jackson Hole with some outsized moves across equities, rates, and FX. Part of the sharp reaction was due to excessive expectations of a hawkish outcome, and also misplaced hope that Powell was signaling an intention to initiate a long cutting cycle and run the economy hot.

I believe his intentions were more nuanced - he needed to provide justification and signaling for a cut as the next move, despite the market already pricing a cut for September. He may very well cut again in December, but the Fed will remain data dependent and by Q1 2026 I expect the data to no longer support further cuts.

If my view of two cuts and a prolonged pause proves to be correct, then the front end of the US rates curve is about 50-60 bp too expensive. I will be trading Treasuries from the short side, and paid subscribers can track how I time my entries and exits and structure the trades.

This morning, Trump announced an attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook on sketchy allegations of mortgage fraud. Markets have reacted by selling USD, buying gold, and selling long bonds, but I would be cautious about chasing today’s moves. Cook and the Fed will not roll over easily, and this attempt to subvert Fed independence will likely head to the courts.

Continue reading for the market’s I’m cautious on, where I’m going risk-on, and what the next few months might look like in crypto…