I feel like the impact of rate hikes specifically on AI company solvency is overstated, when you look at the largest debt holders it's really just Oracle, who while being critical for OpenAI isn't anywhere close to backstopping the entire market.
Also we haven't really seen huge market share takeover by open-source models which leads me to believe they are still lacking something fundamental. My talks with the AI crowd in SF indicate that most industry people think that stuff like GLM is just benchmark maxing and doesn't actually have the holistic capability that Claude has.
Microsoft was reportedly considering using Deepseek as one of the models for Copilot and I’ve seen charts showing open source models taking up the majority of token consumption (but still making up a minority of revenue vs US models). My guess is that as models get better and better, more tokens go to open source and cheap Chinese models as they will be good enough for most workloads.
The SF AI crowd certainly has the inside scoop and has been right on a lot of stuff up to this point but the bearish argument would be that it’s an echo chamber similar to what crypto was in every bull market.
I feel like the impact of rate hikes specifically on AI company solvency is overstated, when you look at the largest debt holders it's really just Oracle, who while being critical for OpenAI isn't anywhere close to backstopping the entire market.
Also we haven't really seen huge market share takeover by open-source models which leads me to believe they are still lacking something fundamental. My talks with the AI crowd in SF indicate that most industry people think that stuff like GLM is just benchmark maxing and doesn't actually have the holistic capability that Claude has.
Microsoft was reportedly considering using Deepseek as one of the models for Copilot and I’ve seen charts showing open source models taking up the majority of token consumption (but still making up a minority of revenue vs US models). My guess is that as models get better and better, more tokens go to open source and cheap Chinese models as they will be good enough for most workloads.
The SF AI crowd certainly has the inside scoop and has been right on a lot of stuff up to this point but the bearish argument would be that it’s an echo chamber similar to what crypto was in every bull market.